2023 Kentucky Derby: Analysis of the key trends
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The Kentucky Derby – known as the ‘most exciting two minutes in sports’ – is set to take place for the 149th successive year on Saturday May 6.
It is the oldest continuously held major sporting event in the United States, having first been run in 1875, and represents the first leg of the American Triple Crown ahead of the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
With entry limited to three-year-old thoroughbreds, the Kentucky Derby sees a 20-strong field compete over one mile and two furlongs at Churchill Downs racetrack.
We have analysed the past 20 renewals to identify the key Kentucky Derby trends.
How do Kentucky Derby favourites perform?
The Kentucky Derby has generally followed the odds in its recent history, with the two-kilometre dirt track favouring horses with the greatest pre-race pedigree.
The starting favourite in the Kentucky Derby odds has triumphed in nine of the last 20 races and has finished on the podium in all but one of the previous 11 years.
Horses priced outside the top three in the betting have struggled for the most part, with 91 per cent crossing the line in fourth place or lower.
That said, this trend has reversed somewhat since Country House won as a 65/1 long shot in 2019, with the last two years seeing Mandaloun and Rich Strike come out on top despite being priced as outsiders beforehand.
Rich Strike’s victory in 2022 represented the almightiest of upsets. He was not scheduled to run until a withdrawal on the day before the race and was priced at a distant 80/1, but he overcame the odds by beating two of the leading contenders (Epicenter and Zandon) in a dramatic finish. In doing so, Rich Strike became the second-biggest long shot to win the Kentucky Derby after Donerail in 1913.
Who has the best record at the Kentucky Derby?
Flavien Prat has shown incredible consistency at the Kentucky Derby. The Frenchman has finished in the top three in four of his five starts and was aboard Country House for his unlikely win in 2019.
Fellow French rider Florent Geroux has the second-best record among active jockeys since 2003, with two podiums in six attempts – a win on Mandaloun in 2021 and a third place on his debut in 2016.
Hall of Famers Mike Smith and John Velazquez are the only present-day riders with multiple Kentucky Derby winners in the last 20 years, although their tallies of four podium finishes in that time have come across 18 starts.
Bob Baffert is arguably the standout trainer among likely participants at the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
The 70-year-old American holds several records and is tied for the most all-time victories, with six including three in the last 20 years.
His 2015 winner American Pharoah went on to further success at the Preakness and Belmont Stakes to become the first holder of the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. Baffert then repeated the feat three years later with Justify, who was also the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old.
Baffert’s podium percentage since 2003 is better than his perennial rivals Steven Asmussen and Todd Pletcher, but not quite as good as younger trainers Brad Cox, Doug O’Neill and Chad Brown.
How much do Kentucky Derby post positions matter?
The build-up to the Kentucky Derby starts at the beginning of race week, specifically when post positions are drawn on Monday.
With competitors lining up side-by-side in the starting gate before completing the one-and-a-quarter mile circuit, logic dictates that horses starting from the inside posts have an advantage in that they have a shorter route to the optimal line for the first turn.
However, it can be difficult for horses to secure racing room while breaking from the inside of a large field, and this is borne out in the data. Since Ferdinand won from post one in 1986, the inside three post positions have a dismal record of one victory in 102 outings – Real Quiet from post three in 1998.
Based on a strict reading of the Kentucky Derby trends, post five is the best position a horse can hope to draw. It has produced the most winners (10) and the highest win percentage (11 per cent) since 1930, with California Chrome (2014) and Always Dreaming (2017) adding to its roll of honour in the last decade.
That said, Kentucky Derby winners have increasingly broken from outside posts in recent years. Eight of the last 12 winners (67 per cent) started from post 13 or wider, suggesting unencumbered trips are more important than saving ground.
