Ryder Cup 2023: Who will triumph in Rome?
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The Ryder Cup 2023 takes place at the Marco Simone Golf and Country Club in Rome from Friday to Sunday this week.
Winners last time out by a whopping 19 points to nine, the USA were expected to start the 44th edition of golf’s biannual team event as favourites in the Ryder Cup 2023 betting odds, with Europe depleted by the absence of previous stalwarts such as Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia.
The two teams switched places in the betting this week though and Europe are now favourites at evens, with the Americans out to 11/10 as they seek a first victory on European soil since 1993.
Coral’s Lewis Knowles said: “We’ve seen so much support for Europe in the last few weeks that it would be a pretty bad result for the firm were Europe to win the Ryder Cup in Rome this weekend.
“If punters continue to back Luke Donald’s side at the same rate over the next 24 hours, then they could even be odds-on by the team the first groups tee off in Rome tomorrow morning.”
To predict what might happen in the Italian capital, we have studied every Ryder Cup played since 1979, when the competition expanded to include continental Europe as well as Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Who has the best record?
Despite fielding their least experienced line-up since 2010, Europe’s 12-man team has a total of 21 appearances to their names, four more than the 17 in the USA Ryder Cup team.
Ryder Cup veterans Rory McIlroy (six) and Justin Rose (five) make up more than half of Europe’s tally, with none of their teammates having appeared more than twice, while Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler are the USA’s most experienced duo with four caps apiece.
Both teams are fielding four rookies, with Robert MacIntyre, Sepp Straka, Ludvig Aberg and Nicolai Hojgaard making their debuts for Europe, and Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman, Max Homa and Sam Burns doing likewise for the USA.
Of the 10 Ryder Cup players with multiple appearances, American Justin Thomas has the best record. The two-time major champion has won six and halved one of his nine matches, with his pedigree in this event having convinced captain Zach Johnson to select him despite an indifferent season on the PGA Tour.
Rose is the leading member of the European team, with the 43-year-old having won 14 points from his 23 previous matches – the same number as McIlroy who has played 28 times.
Meanwhile, Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick is the only returning player on either side who is yet to score for his team. The 2022 US Open winner has lost all five of his Ryder Cup matches – two in singles and three in foursomes.
Does the format make a difference?
The USA will start the Ryder Cup 2023 as the stronger team on paper, with seven major winners in their ranks compared with Europe’s five.
However, this has been the case in all but one of the last 10 Ryder Cups, including in 2004 when a European team without a single major champion thrashed an American team containing five.
The Europeans have generally relied on greater team spirit to overcome their more decorated rivals. While the USA have had the upper hand in singles matches since 1979, Europe have outscored their opponents in both foursomes (sometimes referred to as alternate shot) and fourballs (or better ball).
That said, the Americans have gelled better in recent years and begun to turn the tables in the team formats.
The USA have won 42.5 out of a possible 80 points in foursomes and fourballs since 2012, including a record 11 out of 16 on their way to victory in 2021.
They also go into this year’s event with two tried and tested pairings to call on, while Europe arguably have none.
Of the nine pairs of players who will be in Rome and have played together in a Ryder Cup match before, only Thomas and Jordan Spieth have teamed up more than twice. The childhood friends have won four of the six matches they have played together and are likely to be partnered again in 2023.
American captain Johnson can also call on Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele as a pair, after they won both of their foursomes matches in 2021.
Europe’s captain Luke Donald – on the other hand – may have to seek new combinations for Friday and Saturday’s matches. Only Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland have played together more than once, with the Englishman and Norwegian having registered a loss and a half last time out in Whistling Straits.
In fact, Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton are the only European pairing with a Ryder Cup match win to their name – a one-up victory in Saturday afternoon’s fourballs two years ago.
How much does major form matter?
Very little compares to the unique atmosphere at a Ryder Cup, with golf’s four major championships perhaps providing the clearest barometer of players equipped to handle the pressure.
That bodes well for the USA, with this year’s Open, US Open and PGA champions – Harman, Clark and Brooks Koepka – all wearing stars and stripes.
On the European side, Spain’s Jon Rahm prevented an American clean sweep by winning the Masters ahead of Koepka and Phil Mickelson in April.
However, major form often counts for little in the Ryder Cup. The USA also went into the 2018 event having dominated the game’s biggest tournaments, with Koepka and Patrick Reed sharing three majors earlier in the year. Ultimately, Open champion Francesco Molinari led Europe to victory by claiming a maximum of five points in his side’s 17½ – 10½ success.
This was the fifth time in seven attempts that a team containing winners of three of the year’s four majors had failed to lift the Ryder Cup, with only Europe’s 2014 team and the USA’s 1981 contingent coming good on their major championship form.
How often do we see a close finish?
Once renowned for providing last-ditch drama, the Ryder Cup has increasingly produced lopsided matches in recent years.
Seven of the last nine Ryder Cups have seen a winning margin of five points or more, while all of the previous eight were decided by three points or fewer.
Perhaps the most memorable exception came in 2012, when Europe pulled off the Miracle at Medinah in the first Ryder Cup since the death of the legendary Seve Ballesteros.
The Europeans trailed 10-6 going into Sunday but eight wins and a half in the 12 singles matches proved enough to claim the trophy against the odds.
Since 1979, only four of the 21 Ryder Cups have seen a team overturn a deficit going into the final-day singles, with the other three occasions having all occurred in the 1990s.
All odds and markets correct as of date of publication
