The key stats behind the Irish Grand National
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The 2023 Irish Grand National takes place on Easter Monday, with up to 30 horses set to compete in the prestigious steeplechase.
The Irish National is just as tough to win as its English equivalent, with more than half of runners – 269 out of 530 – failing to finish since 2002.
We have analysed every participant in the past 20 races to understand what it takes to triumph over the Fairyhouse fences.
How do favourites perform in the Irish Grand National?
The brutal nature of the race means it is very much anyone’s to win. While the pre-race favourite in the Irish Grand National betting odds has justified its billing in three of the previous eight races, four of the last 10 winners were priced at 33/1 or longer.
Burrows Saint was the most recent thoroughbred to triumph as a favourite in 2019, but the two races since then have seen shock winners in Freewheelin Dylan at 150/1 in 2021 and Lord Lariat at 40/1 in 2022.
The Irish National has proved tougher to predict than the English one since 2002. Almost four in 10 horses priced at 8/1 or shorter have gone on to place at Aintree, compared with just one in four at Fairyhouse.
On the other hand, the rate at which outsiders (with odds of 50/1 or longer) have finished in the top four is higher in Ireland than in England – one in 11 compared with one in 35.
Just like its Aintree equivalent, the Irish Grand National is a handicap race, meaning that horses judged to be better are assigned a heavier weight to carry.
This extra load has made a difference over the past two decades – none of the runners carrying top weight in that period have gone on to win and only three have managed to place.
Last year’s favourite Gaillard du Mesnil weighed in at 11st 8lb before crossing the line in third, while the heavily-backed Latest Exhibition finished fourth in 2021 despite carrying 11st 10lb. Before that, former winner Davids Lad was the last horse to achieve a top-four finish with maximum weight, tipping the scales at 12st in 2003.
It is important to take heed of the handicap before placing a bet on the Irish Grand National. On average, five of the top six at Fairyhouse have carried a lower weight than the rest of the field.
The 2022 champion Lord Lariat became the fourth sub-10st winner since 2002, after Liberty Counsel (2013), Organisedconfusion (2011) and The Bunny Boiler (2002). In contrast, only one horse has been able to win while carrying in excess of 11st in weight – Our Duke in 2017.
Who has the best record at the Irish Grand National?
The honour roll at the Irish Grand National reads like a who’s who of the all-time great jump jockeys. Ruby Walsh is the only multiple winner since 2002, while other victors in that period include AP McCoy, Jim Culloty and Barry Geraghty.
Among modern-day riders, Jack Kennedy has been the most consistent performer despite failing to top the rostrum in six attempts. The 23-year-old has finished as runner-up on three separate occasions, initially in 2017 aboard Bless the Wings and latterly in 2021 and 2022 on Run Wild Fred and Frontal Assault respectively.
Meanwhile, Irish trainers have dominated on home soil across the past 20 races, with Niche Market’s win for Bob Buckler in 2009 the only one by a British-trained horse since 1997.
Dermot McLoughlin – based in County Meath – is the most successful among active trainers, having provided the winner in each of the last two years.
Mouse Morris and Jonjo O’Neill are the only other trainers with multiple victories since 2002, although neither has enjoyed recent success. None of O’Neill’s runners have placed since his most recent win with Shutthefrontdoor in 2014, while Morris has not entered any of the past three races.
All odds and market correct at date of publication
