League One play-offs – Swindon 13/10 for County Ground win

The fun and games in what has been easily the most exciting of the English divisions this term aren’t over yet with the play-offs due to commence on Saturday. Brentford, Sheffield United, Swindon and Yeovil have all looked like Champions in waiting at various stages of the season, but for now Swindon look most likely to notch a first leg victory at 13/10.

If the weight of history decided the results of football matches then Sheffield United should consider falling upon their collective cutlery before their upcoming matches against Yeovil Town.  The Blades have failed to win the last six end of season play-offs they’ve been involved in, meanwhile Glovers boss Gary Johnson is in the second campaign of his second coming at Huish Park, having won them promotion in every second season since his association with the club began.

In this case the weight of historical conflation has been lent further credence by the facts of form.

The Blades record at Bramall Lane is surprisingly poor given their lofty league position, with just eight home wins all season and a mere two in their final 10 home games. Scoring goals has been their problem – six of those 10 outings saw them draw a blank – and a Yeovil outfit with the prospect of a home second leg in mind could well be tempted to play the opening game tight – Coral go 4/6 about their being under 2.5 goals in the fixture.

Last term Swindon went undefeated at the County Ground from September until the end of the campaign and their home strength has continued to serve them well up in class in 2012/13, even in the post-Paulo Di Canio era. Amidst a run of muddling form since the Italian’s departure, the Robins have been bested just once in seven home games.

Brentford must make the journey to Wiltshire on the back of one of the most comically gut-wrenching defeats in recent memory – the Bees were still mourning missing a last minute penalty which would have secured automatic promotion, when opponents Doncaster swept up the other end and scored the decisive goal – and their hosts can take advantage. Coral go 13/10 about Kevin McDonald’s men recording their third successive home triumph after two three-goal winning margins against Crewe and Stevenage.