Analysis: What does it take to win I’m A Celebrity…Get Me Out Of Here?
With the 21st series of I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out Of Here set to hit our screens this November, we’ve crunched the numbers behind the previous 20 competitions to work out what it takes to win.
The show pits 12 famous contestants against each other, with 10 arriving on day one and two more joining within the first week.
As in 2020, Covid-19 restrictions mean the 2021 edition of the show will be broadcast from Gwrych Castle in Wales rather than Australia.
Will a male or female contestant win “I’m a Celebrity…”?
In the 20 series of the show that have aired so far, men have won more times overall: 11 to nine. Seven of the first nine series were won by a male contestant but the tide has since turned against them.
Since 2015 there have been six winners and five of them have been women, with Harry Redknapp’s triumph in 2018 alone preventing a clean sweep by female celebrities.
Does age matter in “I’m a Celebrity…”?
Youth has been a huge ingredient to success on the show to date: the younger you are, the better your chances of winning have been.
Exactly one in every six contestants who were in their twenties at the start of the series have gone on to win, which is more than twice the proportion of any other age group.
This includes four of the last six winners, all of whom were women.
The proportion of winning contestants drops to one in 12 for those in their thirties and further still for older celebrities.
Almost half of the winners to date were under 30 when the series started while only one of the 32 contestants aged 60 or over went on to win – Redknapp in 2018.
Who fares best in trials on “I’m a Celebrity…”?
There are seven celebrity careers which have been represented at least 10 times on the show to date and three of them have won more than four stars out of every five available.
Comedians – who presumably know how to laugh at themselves – have been the most successful, narrowly edging out former reality show contestants and presenters with almost 83 per cent of possible stars earned.
The worst-performing group so far have been models, earning closer to two-thirds of the stars available in the trials they’ve undertaken.
Who could walk away from “I’m a Celebrity”?
There have been some dramatic walkouts over the years, with 17 celebrities choosing to leave before being eliminated.
With the most recent unscheduled departure having taken place in 2017, we’ve now gone three years without one and are surely overdue some drama.
Recent history suggests that if we do see someone choosing to pack their bags then they’ll be male.
While the gender split of surprise leavers has been pretty even overall, seven of the last nine voluntary exits have been made by men.
Who will be the first person to leave “I’m a Celebrity…”?
Regardless of whether the first person to leave is eliminated or departs of their own volition, it’s more likely to be a male contestant as it has been in 13 of the previous 20 series.
This means that men outnumber women by almost two to one among this unlucky group.
Another interesting pattern is that four of the last eight celebrities to leave the camp first were not there from the start. This suggests those who aren’t on camera from day one of a series are at a disadvantage.
In fact half of the late arrivals since 2013 – eight out of 16 – were also among the first three to leave.
Therefore, while it’s not impossible for a latecomer to win the show – just ask Christopher Biggins or Vicky Pattison – it’s much more likely their stay will be a brief one.
Do the trials matter in “I’m a Celebrity…”?
Performance in the trials definitely factors into who wins the series.
Only two of the 20 previous winners failed to take maximum stars from any of their trials, with the most recent being way back in series five.
In fact, nine of the 11 winners since series nine took the maximum number of stars from more than half of the trials they participated in.
However, performing poorly early on doesn’t seem to matter that much for eventual winners.
When we analysed the proportion of stars won in the first five trials of a series, we found those who performed better tended to survive longer without being eliminated.
The runners-up earned a higher share than those finishing third, who in turn out-earned those who finished fourth and so on.
While this wasn’t at all unexpected, what was surprising was the eventual winners broke this pattern.
The average winner earned a smaller share of possible stars than the average sixth-placed contestant, suggesting a celebrity’s popularity can more than compensate for a disappointing start.
All odds and markets are correct at the time of publication