Wimbledon betting tips: The players to watch in 2023
Wimbledon 2023 promises to be one of the most fiercely contested in the tournament’s recent history and we have analysed the data to help punters looking for Wimbledon betting tips.
Men’s defending champion Novak Djokovic is bidding to move further clear of his ‘big three’ rivals Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer by winning a 24th grand slam title, but he will have to contend with the new world number one Carlos Alcaraz, who is fresh off the back of winning his first grass-court title at Queen’s Club.
Meanwhile, there is a new ‘big three’ emerging in the women’s game, with Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina having shared the last five major titles to cement their status as the best three players in the world.
We have run the rule over the line-up for both singles competitions to identify the potential title winners and who could spring a surprise at SW19.
Which of the top players have the best Wimbledon record?
It will come as no surprise that Djokovic is considered heavy favourite for the men’s singles title.
The Serbian has won seven Wimbledon titles, including all the last four, with his most recent Centre Court defeat having come in the 2013 final against Britain’s Andy Murray. Djokovic has also won both majors played so far this year – the Australian and French Opens – dropping just two sets along the way.
The 36-year-old’s credentials are strengthened further by the relative inexperience of his rivals. Djokovic has exactly twice as many Wimbledon match wins as the rest of the top 10 combined (86 compared with 43), with his nine counterparts having managed only two quarter-final appearances – by Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz – between them.
Reigning champion and world number three Rybakina is the stand-out player in the women’s draw, with 10 wins and just one defeat to her name in matches played at SW19. The Russian-born Kazakhstani was a surprise package last year but has since gone on to establish herself at the top of the game, despite not being awarded any ranking points for her Wimbledon triumph.
World numbers one and two Swiatek and Sabalenka have underwhelming records by comparison with both having made the second week only once, in 2021.
Two-time champion Petra Kvitova is the only other former winner currently ranked inside the top 10, although the Czech has struggled since her most recent triumph in 2014 – losing seven of her 16 matches and failing to pass the fourth round.
How often do we see an upset at Wimbledon?
Recent history suggests that the top 10 seeds are more vulnerable in the early rounds at Wimbledon compared with the other three grand slams.
The grass-court season takes place during a small window in tennis’ jam-packed calendar, with just three weeks separating the French Open final and the start of Wimbledon. As a result, anyone who reaches the latter stages at Roland Garros has very little time to adjust to the grass before Wimbledon gets under way.
This can lead to early upsets, with almost one in three top 10 players across the men’s and women’s draws losing in the first two rounds since 2012.
Men’s number four seed Casper Ruud fell victim to this short turnaround in 2022 when – ranked sixth – he lost to unseeded Frenchman Ugo Humbert in round two, having reached the French Open final only three weeks earlier.
The Norwegian will hope to avoid a repeat let-down this year but having again played in the Roland Garros final, he may be one to take on in Wimbledon betting tips.
Which players could spring a surprise?
The unique nature of the playing surface and the lack of recovery time after the French Open provides an opportunity for lower-ranked players who prioritise the grass-court season.
Hence, two-time Wimbledon champion Murray opted against playing in Paris – where he has never won – in favour of taking part in grass-court Challenger events in preparation for SW19. The 36-year-old Scot – who is unseeded – has proved himself to be one of the best players in the world on grass, having won 60 of his 72 matches at the All England Club.
Meanwhile, the big-serving duo of Milos Raonic and Matteo Berrettini – who reached the final in 2016 and 2021 respectively – will also be ranked outside the top 32 having only just come back from injuries.
On the women’s side, Venus Williams continues to defy her advancing years at the age of 43. The five-time champion represents a dangerous potential opponent for any seeded player in the early rounds.
Former world number two Paula Badosa is closer to the start of her career and could trouble higher-ranked opponents having recovered from a stress fracture, while Germany’s Jule Niemeier – quarter-finalist on debut last year – is also one to avoid having beaten second seed Anett Kontaveit in round two in 2022.
How much does experience matter at Wimbledon?
While we often see shock results in the early rounds at the All England Club, it is usually a familiar name being etched on the trophy come the end of the fortnight.
Only five of the last 40 singles champions were first-time major winners. The US Open has seen the most players make their grand slam breakthrough across the same period (15), ahead of the French Open (12) and the Australian Open (eight).
Federer was the last male player to win his first grand slam at Wimbledon in 2003, while Maria Sharapova, Kvitova, Marion Bartoli and Rybakina are the only women’s champions since 2002 who had not won a major beforehand.
Of the players expected to be seeded in 2023, Alcaraz, Djokovic and Medvedev – world numbers one, two and three – are the only men with a major win to their name.
Meanwhile, there are seven former grand slam winners in the women’s top 32, headed by the ‘big three’ of Swiatek, Sabalenka and Rybakina. Kvitova (seeded ninth), Barbora Krejcikova (10th), Jelena Ostapenko (17th) and Victoria Azarenka (19th) have also tasted victory at one of tennis’ biggest events.