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Australian Open betting tips: Nadal and Medvedev do battle Down Under

| 29.01.2022
SPORTSBOOK ODDS

Preview and odds for the men’s singles final at the Australian Open

Many would have imagined it would be Novak Djokovic that would be bidding for history in Sunday’s men’s singles final but it is Rafael Nadal who has the chance to land a record 21st grand slam title as he faces Daniil Medvedev and we hunt out some Australian Open betting tips.  

US Open champion Medvedev, who with the absence of Djokovic has been favourite for the men’s singles throughout this competition, himself has a chance to write his name into the record books and become the first man to follow up a maiden grand slam title with victory at the next major.

The Russian is the 1/2 favourite to come out on top in Australian Open betting tips but the Spaniard, playing in his sixth Australian Open final, can be backed at 6/4.

All of the hard-hitting action Down Under can be watched on live on Eurosport, with highlights on BBC1 at 1.55pm.

Route to the final

Nadal looked dead on his feet at the conclusion of his quarter-final with Denis Shapovalov, with his experience coming to the fore at the crucial moments.

However, he made the most of two days rest to navigate a tough semi-final with hard-hitting Italian Matteo Berrettini in four sets.

The sixth seed executed the perfect game plan of exposing the 25-year-old’s backhand and he will have been relieved to spend only three hours on court to record the 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3 victory.

He has lost just five sets in his run to the final but four of those have come when the level of opponent has stepped up in the last eight and semis.

As one of the greats of the game, it was once impossible to come back against Nadal once he gained control of a match but he is not as formidable as he was and Shapovalov showed that if you can get him into the fourth or fifth set then there is chinks in his armour that can be exposed.

Medvedev has carried the weight of expectation ever since Australian immigration placed Djokovic on a plane back to Belgrade and although he has at times wobbled under the burden, he has shown all the qualities of a champion to make his fourth grand slam final.

He fought back from the brink to see off Felix Auger-Aliassime in a five-set marathon in the quarter-final and although losing the first set on a tiebreak in the semi-final, won the next three sets in just 27 games to beat bitter rival Stefanos Tsitsipas at that stage of the tournament for the second year in a row.

The world number two looks ready to cement his place at the top table of tennis but the task at hand can’t be underestimated and he would be the first active player outside of the big three of Roger Federer, Nadal and Djokovic to win back-to-back grand slam titles.

Daniil Medvedev, Australian Open betting tips

Head-to-head

This will be the fifth time that these two meet and Nadal holds a 3-1 advantage so far but Medvedev was the winner the last time this pair clashed in the ATP finals in 2020.

The Flushing Meadows champ fought back from 1-0 down on that occasion and it is 11/2 for Medvedev to lose the first set but win the match in this Aussie Open final.

Daniil Medvedev, Australian Open betting tips

Medvedev was close to pulling off mission impossible against Nadal in the final of the 2019 US Open.

Playing his first championship match in slams, the Russian made a spirited comeback and very nearly became only the second player to beat Nadal from two sets down at a major competition.

It is 12/5 for this one to go the distance and 5/1 for Medvedev to record a 3-2 victory in Australian Open betting tips. However, if you fancy Nadal to claim a historic 21st grand slam in five, you can get 6/1.

Match odds

Keeping this simple, it is hard to see how Nadal, without the wizardry and unrelenting stamina reserves of his pomp, has the tools to win over five sets against a player at the top of his game and a worthy favourite.

If Medvedev keeps his cool and handles the occasion, then he should become a two-time grand slam champion.

However, Nadal will have plenty of support from the locals on Rod Laver Arena and he is sure to be the neutrals pick as he goes in search of a romantic victory.

If the Spaniard is to succeed, he will need to rattle the Russian early and therefore taking the 5/4 for Nadal to win the first set could pay dividend.

Rafael Nadal, Australian Open betting tips

Although Nadal has won the first set of his last two matches 6-3, which is 6/1 in Australian Open betting tips, both of Medvedev’s last two have gone to a tiebreak, with the world number two winning one and losing one.

It is 2/1 for a first set tiebreak, with 11 or more games 29/20, while Nadal to win the opening exchanges 7-6 can be found at 5/1.

You can get 10/11 for the Spaniard to win over 10.5 games in the first two sets combined, with it 8/11 for the 20-time grand slam winner to lead in sets at any point.

Other bets that may appeal in Australian Open betting tips are Medvedev to win and over 37.5 total games at 6/4 and 14/5 for the Russian to win and over 1.5 total tiebreaks in the match.

All odds and markets correct as of date of publication

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Author

Adam Morgan