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France v Spain betting tips: Torres doubt for Milan final

| 09.10.2021
SPORTSBOOK ODDS

Preview and odds for Sunday’s Nations League final

The Nations League final takes place in Milan on Sunday, and we have examined the odds to find some France v Spain betting tips

Spain ended Italy’s long unbeaten run with a 2-1 success in the semi-final while France won a thriller, beating Belgium 3-2 with a last-gasp goal to reach the second edition of the final.

Sunday’s final takes place at the San Siro Stadium with a 7.45pm kick-off and is live on Sky Sports.

France v Spain match odds

A brace from Manchester City’s Ferran Torres saw Spain end European champions Italy’s record 37-game unbeaten run at the San Siro on Wednesday night.

They now face fellow heavyweights France in the final, after Theo Hernandez struck a dramatic stoppage-time winner to cap an incredible second-half fightback against Belgium.

Torres’ first-half double, which came either side of a red card for Italy captain Leonardo Bonucci, condemned the longest unbeaten run in international football history to a footnote, as Spain avenged their European Championship semi-final defeat on penalties. Lorenzo Pellegrini’s late goal was scant consolation for the Italians.

Spain are 19/10 to beat the reigning world champions, who sealed their berth in the final thanks to Hernandez’s spectacular late winner against the world’s top-ranked team.

After Belgium dominated the first half and took a two-goal lead into the break, Karim Benzema pulled one back before Kylian Mbappe fired home an unstoppable penalty.

Yet there was late drama, as Romelu Lukaku had a winner ruled out for offside before Paul Pogba hit the bar from a free-kick at the other end, but Hernandez was able to find the net after finishing off a France counter-attack.

France are 31/20 to win the final in 90 minutes and 8/11 favourites to lift the trophy in the France v Spain betting tips.

The draw is available at odds of 21/10. There have been just seven draws between the pair in the 35 meetings since 1922.

Cesar Azpilicueta, Spain, France v Spain betting tips

France v Spain head-to-head

France have only won two of the last nine meetings with Spain (D1 L6) although this will be their first clash since playing a friendly in March 2017, which Spain won 2-0 in Paris.

If historic trends hold firm, don’t expect too many goals. France and Spain have not registered more than two goals in each of their last seven meetings and it is 8/13 that under 2.5 goals will be scored this time.

Six of those seven meetings saw one or other side fail to net and it is 20/23 that one or other fails to score again in the France v Spain betting tips.

France v Spain team news

Torres went off injured after his first-half brace against 10-man Italy, but expects to be fit for Sunday’s final.

However, Spain boss Luis Enrique sounded a more cautious note, saying: “I’m not sure how Ferran will be.

“He had a knock in the first half and another in the second half so we decided to take no risks.”

Should he play, he will be of interest in the anytime goalscorer market.

France did not appear to sustain any new injuries, with Mbappe back fit after missing last month’s 2-0 win over Finland.

France v Spain key battles

Spain made a statement against Italy. Although Enrique’s side face a battle to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and were missing several key players, the likes of 17-year-old Gavi was grace personified in the midfield, and 18-year-old Yeremi Pina was outstanding on the right wing.

Italy were vulnerable at the back and did not help themselves with some poor defending, yet the way Belgium bossed France in the first half of the other semi-final suggests we are in for an intriguing final.

It will be interesting to see if France’s higher press in the second half, which was key to their win over Belgium, will be able to suffocate Spain – who are evens to lift the trophy – and allow their dynamic front three to see more of the ball.

View the latest Nations League odds

All odds and markets correct as of date of publication

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Author

Simon Milham