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Euro quarter-finals: What can we expect?

| 01.07.2021
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With just eight teams remaining as the Euro quarter-finals approach, we have run the rule over each of them to see how the rest of the tournament might play out.

Our analysis of the data looks at some of the trends in performances to help us predict what happens next at Euro 2020.

Who has scored the most goals at Euro 2020?

Starting with the simplest measure of all, we have looked at how many goals each of the remaining nations has scored and conceded. For fairness we have ignored extra time so that we are considering the same amount of playing time for each team.

Euro 2020 quarter finals Artboard 1

The quarter-final between Switzerland and Spain could be an absolute humdinger. Both sides have seen an average of more than three goals scored in their games so far, skewed by a whopping 14 goals across their ties in the Round of 16.

Belgium’s clash with Italy could be a more tense affair given that these two have defended well. The Italians have yet to concede in normal time and the Belgian defence has only been breached once.

Who has dominated at Euro 2020?

While goals are what decide matches, looking at the balance of chances a team creates and allows can be a more reliable indicator of their quality.

We have compared the rates at which each of the quarter-finalists has been taking and facing shots on target so far.

Euro 2020 quarter finals Artboard 2

Despite losing their talisman Christian Eriksen in their opening match, Denmark have tested the opposing goalkeeper more often than any other team to have reached the Euro quarter-finals.

Along with Spain and Italy, the Danes have gotten shots on target far more often than their opponents and should not be underestimated.

Meanwhile England have been the quietest attackers among the final eight, with just over two shots on target per 90 minutes. Their quarter-final opponents Ukraine have looked open at the back though, so this could be the game where Gareth Southgate finally lets his forwards off the leash.

Who has the best head-to-head record at Euro 2020?

In the last decade, each of the eight teams in the upcoming Euro quarter-finals has played more than 10 matches against the other seven combined. We have compared their overall records to see who has the most experience at defeating the others.

Euro 2020 quarter finals Artboard 3

There is a good reason why Belgium are ranked number one in the world: they’re the only one of the last eight teams with a better than 50% win rate against the other seven in the last decade.

Meanwhile Switzerland’s shock win over France may be tricky to repeat. The Swiss have only won one of their 15 matches against the other quarter-finalists in this period, so they would need to play significantly above their normal level to go much deeper in this tournament.

Who could win the Golden Boot at Euro 2020?

There are 11 players still in the tournament who have taken at least 10 shots so far. We have compared how often they have attempted to hit the back of the net.

Euro 2020 quarter finals Artboard 4

Interestingly the five most industrious players in this group – all of whom have taken more than three and a half shots per 90 minutes so far – line up for just two teams: Spain and Italy. If they were to meet in the semi-finals then it could end up raining goals.

With Spain up against a leaky Switzerland side in the last eight, there could be plenty of opportunities for Dani Olmo and Alvaro Morata to run riot.

Czech Republic striker Patrick Schick already has four goals to his name – the most of any player still at the tournament – and the rate at which he has been testing goalkeepers suggests that his tally may rise further still.

Which teams have been in control at Euro 2020?

Results are what count in the end, but they sometimes only tell part of the story. We have run back the clocks minute-by-minute for every game at the European Championship so far to see how long each team has spent winning, drawing and losing.

Euro 2020 quarter finals Artboard 5

Neither Italy nor England have yet found themselves behind at the tournament, suggesting that they have been the best-organised of the quarter-finalists.

However, Gareth Southgate’s side have also spent a larger share of time drawing than anyone else in the last eight, although they will be favoured to reach the semi-finals regardless. Their next opponents Ukraine have only led for around one minute in every five and are the only team in the Euro quarter-finals to have spent more time losing than winning so far.

Denmark have spent the largest proportion of time winning – not far off half of their playing minutes so far. Their tie against the Czech Republic – who have spent less than 90 minutes ahead – could be a one-sided affair if the Danes start well.

View the latest Euro 2020 odds

All odds and markets correct as of date of publication

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Author

Andrew McDermott

Andrew is a sports betting content journalist at PA Media. He is a lifelong Huddersfield Town fan but when he isn't reminiscing about their Premier League days he is also a junior cricket coach and enjoys cycling.