Will Frankie Dettori claim a record-breaking fifth win at the Dubai World Cup?
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With an estimated prize pot of around £10 million, the Dubai World Cup has established itself as one of the richest horse races in the world since its inception in 1996.
The 2023 Dubai World Cup – which takes place on Saturday March 25 – is set to be the next major stop on Frankie Dettori’s 2023 farewell tour, with the 52-year-old jockey having announced that he will retire at the end of the season.
We have analysed the last 20 races to assess his chances of bowing out with a record-breaking fifth win on the Middle Eastern dirt.
Who has the best record at the Dubai World Cup?
Following his victory aboard Country Grammer in 2022, Dettori is tied with American jockey Jerry Bailey for most wins in Dubai (four). The pair dominated the first decade of the event, winning seven out of 11 races before a 15-year drought.
In the absence of Bailey – who retired in 2006 – Dettori has been the most successful rider over the past 20 races in terms of wins (three), but his podium percentage is bettered by Frenchman Flavien Prat and American Joel Rosario.
Prat finished a close second to Dettori on Hot Rod Charlie last year, adding to a previous third place finish, while Rosario previously won with US thoroughbred Animal Kingdom in 2013.
Among trainers, Saeed bin Suroor has racked up a record nine victories, including seven of the last 20 races. Suroor’s most recent successes came in 2018 and 2019, when Thunder Snow roared to back-to-back wins.
However, Americans Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert and Steven Asmussen have the edge on Suroor when it comes to top three percentage, with the latter duo seeing more than half of their entries place since 2002.
Baffert’s Country Grammer is aiming to become only the second two-time winner in Dubai World Cup history, after Suroor’s Thunder Snow.
What are the key predictors of success at the Dubai World Cup?
If – as expected – Dettori rides Country Grammer in his bid for consecutive wins, both man and horse will be looking to fend off younger rivals as the American thoroughbred turns six in May.
Four-year-olds have enjoyed the highest success rate at the two-kilometre Meydan track, with eight wins and 17 further podium finishes out of a total of 80 entries. Older horses have struggled in comparison, with those over the age of six combining for just five victories in total.
Despite recent American success – US thoroughbreds have won four of the past six World Cups – Irish-bred horses are the cream of the crop in the Middle East.
Of the 34 entries who were foaled in Ireland since 2002, five have passed the post first and a further six have finished second or third. British thoroughbreds have made the podium at around half the rate of their Irish counterparts.
Outside of Ireland, USA and Great Britain, horses bred in South America have enjoyed some strong results in Dubai, with 2007 winner Invasor bred in Argentina and 2010 winner Gloria De Campeao coming from Brazil.
Is experience undervalued at the Dubai World Cup?
With the level of competition improving each year, the Dubai World Cup has become a difficult race to predict. One of the top two favourites has triumphed in 10 of the last 20 races, but seven of those wins came in successive years between 2002 and 2008. Just three of the past 13 editions have been won by one of the two shortest-priced horses.
Meanwhile, previous experience at Meydan is increasingly paying dividends, with seven winners since 2009 having run the race at least once before. Only one of these was considered the favourite, while five were priced outside the top three according to pre-race Dubai World Cup betting odds.
The value of experience bodes well for Dettori and Country Grammer’s chances of a repeat victory, with five of the seven winners to have run the race before having finished on the podium in their previous outing.
Thunder Snow scored consecutive victories in 2018 and 2019, Gloria De Campeao (2010) and California Chrome (2016) won having finished second 12 months earlier, and Well Armed (2009) and Monterosso (2012) made the step up from third in the previous year.
