Dubai World Cup: Trend guide and key pointers
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What are the key trends ahead of the Dubai World Cup at Meydan?
The Dubai World Cup. It’s a race like no other. With a purse of $12m, including over $5m for the winner, the 1m 2f test attracts horses and trainers from all over the world.
ThunderSnow has taken the last two editions for Saeed bin Suroor. But with thedual-champion now retired, there’ll be a new name on the Meydan crown in 2020.
We’ve taken a look at some of the key trends and pointers ahead of the race on Saturday 28th March, which looks set to go ahead behind closed doors.
10/10had won a Group 1 or Group 2
Youneed to have class to win the Dubai World Cup. That goes without saying. Butit’s that top echelon of horse we’re looking for to be able to trot away withthe biggest cheque of all.
Threeof this year’s prospective field can arguably be discounted straight away, then.Chuwa Wizard, Gronkowski, Master Fencer have all failed to win in Group1 or Group 2 company.
8/10were trained in the USA or UAE
TheDubai World Cup attracts horses and trainers from all over the world. It’s oneof the most prestigious prizes in the sport. So why wouldn’t it?
Yetit’s the USA and UAE-trained horses which tend to dominate. Victoire Pisa(Japan, 2011) and Gloria de Campeao (France, 2010), are the only exceptions tothe rule.
It’sa significant statistic given that Japan usually head to Meydan with a stronghand. Break it down further and we find that five of the last eight winnershave been UAE-trained.
7/10didn’t win last time out
Weknow that a recent prep-run is important ahead of the race. However, finishingin the winners’ enclosure on that run isn’t as crucial as you might think.
ThunderSnow, who won the Dubai World Cup in both 2018 and 2019, is testament to that.The Godolphin star finished second in the run immediately prior to his successboth times.
7/10had won at Meydan before
Peoplesay familiarity breeds contempt. Not when it comes to this race. Seven of thelast 10 winners had raced at Meydan before, which suggests course knowledge isuseful.
Ofthose currently set to line up, only Benbatl (six), Gronkowski (four) andMattherhorn (two) have raced at Meydan before. Curiously, all three of thoseare formerly British-trained too.
7/10were four or five-year-olds
Youngerhorses have a much better strike rate in the Dubai World Cup. Four and fiveyear-olds account for each of the last four winners and seven of the last 10.
Onlyone eight-year-old has ever won the race, Prince Bishop in 2015, whileseven-year-olds only boast a marginally better record with two wins from 24editions of the contest.
5/10went off at 10/1 or bigger
Thosenear the head of the market have fared pretty well in recent years. The lastfour winners have gone off at short enough prices of 8/1, 4/1, 1/3 and 15/8.
However,Thunder Snow, Arrogate and California Chrome were all either star horses or hadan affinity with the track. None of this year’s contingent can truly boastsimilar quality.
Thatcould mean another big price winner, like Prince Bishop at 14/1 in 2015. Withfive of the last 10 winners going in at an SP of 10/1, it’s not something we’reruling out.
4/10had a low-medium draw
Thedraw is all-important in a race like this. History shows you don’t want a horsetoo close to the running rail, with the outer stalls fairing best over the lastdecade.
ThunderSnow (x2), Arrogate and California Chrome, each of the last four winners, weredrawn in 11, 10, 9 and 11 respectively. Only four contenders have won fromstall six or lower.
Allodds and markets correct as of date of publication
