Coral Election Forecast sees Tories and SNP on the up
Published:
Coral has published its latest Coral Election Forecast (CEF) based on the bookmaker’s current odds, which sees both the Conservative Party and the SNP increasing their predicted number of seats since last week’s CEF primarily at the expense of Labour and UKIP.
Over the last week Coral has seen significant betting activity across a wide range of marginal constituencies which is reflected in today’s Coral Election Forecast.
The Conservative Party is up four seats on last week to 282 seats (from 278), with the SNP up five seats to 53 seats (from 48).
The Labour Party is down six seats to 264 seats (from 270) while UKIP has also slipped back to 3 seats on the CEF from 5 seats a week ago. The Liberal Democrats have dropped by just one seat to 25 seats (from 26).
“The Coral Election Forecast is increasingly pointing towards the Conservatives winning the most seats on 7th May, the SNP winning nearly all the seats in Scotland, and a hung parliament,” said Simon Clare, Coral Spokesman.
Coral today reported one-way traffic in terms of betting activity on the Election in favour of the Conservatives, and have been forced to cut the odds on the Tories winning the most seats to 2/7 from 1/3, and David Cameron being Prime Minister on 1st June to 5/4 from 11/8. Coral have also seen some big bets on a Conservative overall majority at 13/2 and have since cut those odds to 11/2.
“For the first time we are seeing sustained support in the betting market for David Cameron and the Conservative Party. The single most popular bet on the Election today is for the Conservatives to win the most seats and the odds keep getting shorter and shorter,” added Clare.
ENDS
Notes to Editors:
The Coral Election Forecast (CEF) is a mathematical model that uses Coral’s odds on all 650 constituencies to calculate the likely chances of each party winning each seat which then culminates in a predicted total seat outcome for each party on Election Day. As the odds for constituencies alter so the CEF forecast will alter.
Here is how the weekly CEF has changed over the last three weeks.
Coral Election Betting Forecast Tracker:
28th April 21st April 14th April 7th April
Con 282 278 284 285
Lab 264 270 276 264
SNP 53 48 36 45
LD 25 26 26 27
UKIP 3 5 6 7
PC 3 3 2 2
Green 1 1 2 2
Other 19 19 18 18
Coral Election Betting:
**To Be UK Prime Minister on June 1st
8-13 Ed Miliband (from 4-7), 5-4 David Cameron (from 11-8), 16-1 Any other person
**Party To win most seats
2-7 Conservatives (from 4-9), 5-2 Labour (from 7-4), 250-1 UKIP, 1000-1 Liberal Democrats, Green Party
**To win an overall majority
1-10 Hung Parliament, 11-2 Conservatives (from 13-2), 25-1 Labour (from 20-1), 250-1 UKIP, 1000-1 Liberal Democrats
**Make up of next government
5-4 Coalition involving Liberal Democrats, 8-1 Coalition involving the SNP, 16-1 Coalition involving UKIP, 16-1 Coalition involving the Greens
**Two elections in 2015
11-4 Yes, 1-4 No
** Conservative Seats
5-6 284 or more seats
5-6 283 or fewer seats
** Labour Seats
8-11 267 or more seats
Evs 266 or fewer seats
** SNP Seats
Evs 51 or more seats
8-11 50 or fewer seats
** Lib Dem Seats
5-6 26 or more seats
5-6 25 or fewer seats
** UKIP seats
6-5 4 or more seats
8-13 3 or fewer seats
