Conservatives out in front in final Coral Election Forecast

Coral today, 5^th May, published its latest and final Coral Election Forecast (CEF) based on the bookmaker’s current odds, which sees small increases in both the Conservative Party and Labour Party seat expectations at the expense of the SNP.

Coral forecasts that the Conservatives will be the largest single party with 283 seats, with the Labour Party seventeen behind them on 266 seats. Coral forecasts that the SNP will win 50 seats, the Liberal Democrats 25 seats and UKIP 3 seats.

However the significant feature of the Coral Election Forecast tracker over the last five weeks is how little has changed during the period, and how the final CEF results vary very little from the first CEF conducted on 7^th April.

“Over the last five weeks we have seen considerable betting activity across many marginal constituencies, and in support of candidates from all the major parties, yet the remarkable fact is that the various, contrasting betting moves at a local level have almost cancelled each-other out when it comes to the overall picture provided by the Coral Election Forecast”, explained Simon Clare, Coral Spokesman.

The latest betting patterns on the General Election are fairly symmetrical to the Coral Election Forecast with significant support in recent days for the Conservatives to win most seats, a small share of bets on the Conservatives to win a majority at 6/1, but the odds on a hung parliament still shortening to 1/12.

A twelve grand bet, and many smaller bets, on David Cameron to be Prime Minister on the 1^st June prompted Coral to clip Cameron into favouritism at 5/6 in the race for Number 10, just ahead of Ed Miliband who is now priced at Evens.

“In betting terms David Cameron has just nosed ahead of Ed Miliband in the race for Number 10 but by the smallest margin. However, the wide range of permutations and scenarios that appear possible once the dust has settled on 8^th May make this the most fascinating and unpredictable General Election betting market,” added Clare.

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

The Coral Election Forecast (CEF) is a mathematical model that uses Coral’s odds on all 650 constituencies to calculate the likely chances of each party winning each seat which then culminates in a predicted total seat outcome for each party on Election Day.  As the odds for constituencies alter so the CEF forecast will alter.

Here is how the weekly CEF has changed over the last five weeks.

Coral Election Betting Forecast Tracker:

                          5^th May                 28^th April             21^st April              14^th April              7^th April

Con                        283                         282                         278                         284                         285

Lab                         266                         264                         270                         276                         264

SNP                        50                           53                           48                           36                           45

LD                           25                           25                           26                           26                           27

UKIP                      3                              3                              5                              6                              7

PC                           3                              3                              3                              2                              2

Green                   1                              1                              1                              2                              2

Other                    19                           19                           19                           18                           18

Coral Election Betting Tracker

To Win Most Seats

                          5^th May                 28^th April             21^st April              14^th April              7^th April

Con                        1/6                         2/7                         4/9                         8/15                       4/9

Lab                         4/1                         5/2                         7/4                         6/4                         7/4

To Be PM on 1^st June

                       5^th May                 28^th April             21^st April              14^th April              7^th April

Cameron             5/6                         5/4                         Evs                         4/5                         8/13

Miliband              Evs                         8/13                       5/6                         Evs                         5/4

Coral Election Betting: 
**To Be UK Prime Minister on June 1st
5-6 David Cameron (from 10-11), Evens Ed Miliband (from 10-11),), 20-1 Any other person

**Party To win most seats
1-6 Conservatives (from 1-5), 4-1 Labour (from 10-3), 250-1 UKIP, 1000-1 Liberal Democrats, Green Party

**To win an overall majority
1-12 Hung Parliament, 6-1 Conservatives, 25-1 Labour, 250-1 UKIP, 1000-1 Liberal Democrats

**Make up of next government
5-4 Coalition involving Liberal Democrats,

6-4 Labour Minority,

11-4 Conservative Minority,

11-2 Conservative Majority,

8-1 Coalition involving the SNP,

16-1 Coalition involving UKIP,

20-1 Coalition involving the Greens,

25-1 Labour Majority,

**Two elections in 2015
11-4 Yes, 1-4 No

** Conservative Seats
5-6          287 or more seats
5-6          286 or fewer seats

** Labour Seats
4-6          266 or more seats
11-10     265 or fewer seats

** SNP Seats
Evs         52 or more seats
8-11       51 or fewer seats

** Lib Dem Seats
5-6          27 or more seats
5-6          26 or fewer  seats

** UKIP seats
5-6          3 or more seats
5-6          2 or fewer seats