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Premier League relegation – do the relegated teams bounce back?

| 14.05.2018

As the domestic league campaigns came to a close last week a remarkable stat emerged.

No team that was promoted to any of the top five divisions in England – from Premier League to National League – in 2016/17 has been relegated in 2017/18.

Despite battling near the foot of the table for the vast majority of the season Newcastle United, Brighton and Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town all survived the Premier League’s trap door.

This stat for the ages would have gone up in smoke though, had it not been for Aaron Wilbraham. The 38-year-old turned back the clock to score only his second goal of the season against Nottingham Forest to drag Bolton Wanderers from the depths of League One to Championship safety.

However, if you flip this around The Coral News Team have investigated how teams relegated from the Premier League do in their bid for an immediate reprieve.

The positions follow from where they finished in the Premier League to where they placed in the Championship the following season:

2007-8: 18 Reading (4th), 19 Birmingham (2ndpromoted, 20 Derby (18th)

2008-9: 18 Newcastle (1stpromoted, 19 Boro (11th), 20 West Brom (2ndpromoted

2009-10: 18 Burnley (8th), 19 Hull (11th), 20 Portsmouth (16th)

2010-11: 18 Birmingham (4th), 19 Blackpool (5th), 20 West Ham (3rdpromoted

2011-12: 18 Bolton (7th), 19 Blackburn (17th), 20 Wolves (23rd)

2012-13: 18 Wigan (5th), 19 Reading (7th), 20 QPR (4thpromoted

2013-14: 18 Norwich (3rdpromoted, 19 Fulham (17th), 20 Cardiff (11th)

2014-15: 18 Hull (4thpromoted, 19 Burnley (1stpromoted, 20 QPR (12th)

2015-16: 18 Newcastle (1st) promoted, 19 Norwich (8th), 20 Villa (13th)

2016-17: 18th Hull City (18th), Middlesbrough (5th)*, Sunderland (24th) relegated

*in the Play-Offs

Going back ten years, only 9 out of the 30 Premier League clubs that have been relegated return at the first time of asking.  Only 4 out of those 9 came up automatically.

The chances of the much talked about ‘bounce-back-ability’ coming in to play currently stands at 3 in 10.

However, this could be improved upon if Middlesbrough can overturn a one-goal deficit against Aston Villa and then win the Wembley showpiece on May 26th.

The average league position of relegated teams is between 8th and 9th.

This indicates this year’s Championship intake of Swansea City, Stoke City and West Bromwich Albion will have to buck the trend to have a chance of an instant return to the Premier League promised land.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing

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Charlie Dear