Cesarewitch Handicap key trends point to a possible Irish winner
Published:
Mullins could bag another big victory
It’s back to Newmarket for the third weekend in a row on Saturday as the flat racing season gears up for the superb Cesarewitch Handicap.
The second half of the Autumn Double, this 2m2f renewal looks particularly competitive this year.
The Coral News Team have been through the best stats ahead of the 2017 running, in a bid to help you to whittle down the big field.
Did you know that no jockey in modern racing history has won the Cesarewitch Handicap two years running?
Let’s crack on with the most important trends and see if there’s some hidden value to be found.
12 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price in the betting
The Cesarewitch is known for being an ultra-competitive handicap and has been a graveyard for favourites in recent years.
In fact, only Darley Sun in 2009 has justified favouritism in the last 15 years. Overall, just three have won this race at single-figure odds.
Aaim To Prosper stroked home to glory in 2012 at a remarkable 66/1.
That may suit Karen McLintock’s Dubawi Fifty. The impressive four-year-old has been held back since August but comes in here fresh and in-form.
10 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or older
Going on this particular trend could rule out six of the top nine in the current betting.
John Constable, Lagostovegas, and Who Dares Wins are the top three favourites at present. Coincidentally, all are five-years-old or older.
The next six on the list are each aged four-years-old or younger.
Alan King’s Who Dares Wins was an impressive winner at Newmarket on his last run in September.
0 of the last 15 jockeys have won this race in consecutive years
Silvestre de Sousa won last year on Sweet Selection at 7/1, so he could be eliminated from the betting here going on the above trend.
That would also mean avoiding Withhold.
Ryan Moore has won this race just once before back in 2002 and takes the reins on Lagostovegas.
Andrea Atzeni is also a former winner and goes on Laws Of Spin.
Verdict
Of the three big trends the Coral News Team have picked out, there seems to be one horse fitting the bill among all others – LAGOSTOVEGAS.
The five-year-old has Ryan Moore on-board and is at double-figure odds.
He’s won his last two for Willie Mullins at Listowel and Killarney and the Irish are generally very strong in the Cesarewitch.
Backing him to win outright, or at an each-way price could turn out to represent great value.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing
