2019 Randox Health Grand National stats and trends guide
Published:
David Metcalf | April 4, 2019
A maximum field of 40 horses will go to post at 5:15pm on Saturday 6th April for the 2019 Randox Health Grand National. But how do you narrow down the huge list of contenders to find your selection?
Using historical trends and statistics focusing on the age, weight, class, stamina and jumping experience of previous winners, it’s possible to narrow down your picks for the 4m 2½f contest.
Age
There are no great indicators in terms of age over the last 20 years, although no horse aged seven or younger has won the race over the last two decades. Bogskar last claimed that honour all the way back in 1940.
11 of the last 20 runnings have been won by nine or ten year olds, yet only one nine-year-old has triumphed since Mon Mome in 2009.
Eight year olds Many Clouds, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll account for three of the last four Grand National winners.
Weight
Unlike plenty of the year’s other big races, the Grand National is a handicap contest which means horses carry different weights depending on ability and form. In theory this makes for a more even race.
Six of the last 10 winners have won carrying 10st 11lb or more, although only one of the last six winners has carried more than 11st. Only five of the last 20 winners have triumphed carrying 10st 7lb or less.
Somewhere between 10st 7lb and 11st would appear to be the ideal Grand National weight.
Class
The Grand National is no longer the lottery it was once considered, with the new framing of the weights meaning that the handicap is more compacted allowing the class horses to perform better.
Most recent winners ran off an official rating of between 136 and 160 with only Bobby Jo (1999) and Little Polvier (1989) winning from “out of the handicap”.
Stamina
Gay Trip in 1970 was the last horse to win the Grand National that had not previously won over a distance of 3m or further.
The Topham Chase, which is also run at this Aintree meeting, can be seen as a pointer to future National winners due to the experience over the fences.
However, that race is is run over a distance of almost 2m shorter and having a horse that has raced over 3m is an absolute must for the National.
Seasonal experience
It’s well-established that horses usually need to have run over 3m to win the Grand National. But it’s also important to have the relevant seasonal experience.
No Grand National winner in the last 10 years has triumphed off the back of less than three prep-runs. Six of the last 10 have won off the back of four or five runs in the same season.
Only three of the 10 had won at Cheltenham in the same season, while half of our crop from the last decade had finished in the frame in their run immediately prior to the Grand National.
One For Arthur (2016) and Aldaniti (1981) are the only winners in the last 38 years to have won the race off the back of a 50+ day break.
Odds and favourites
30 fences and 40 runners make the Grand National a favourite’s graveyard.
Don’t Push It (2010), Comply Or Die (2008) and Hedgehunter (2005) are the only three favourites to win the race this side of the Millennium.
Six of the last 10 winners have triumphed at odds of 20/1 or greater, including huge 100/1 shock Mon Mome in 2009.
2018 winner Grand National Tiger Roll looks set to go off as favourite for the 2019 Grand National.
Trainers
The McCain family have a terrific record in the race. Father Donald won the Grand National on no fewer than four occasions – three times with Red Rum and once with Amberleigh House. Son Donald saddled Ballabriggs to victory in 2011.
Gordon Elliott claimed his second win in the race in 2018 with the aforementioned Tiger Roll. He’ll have plenty of darts this time around – including Tiger Roll – as he bids for a hat-trick.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is another trainer looking for his third win in the race.
Jockey
Only Ruby Walsh and Leighton Aspell have partnered a Grand National winner more than once in the last 40 years.
The latter won in both 2014 and 2015 and will be hoping for his third success in the race in 2019, while Walsh hasn’t tasted success since 2005.
Don’t be put off by an inexperienced jockey, though. Liam Treadwell triumphed aboard Mon Mome in his first ever Grand National back in 2009.
People often like to pick their National horse based on strange quirks too – so how about this.
Each of the last three winners have been ridden by a jockey whose name begins with ‘D’ – David Mullins, Derek Fox and Davy Russell.
For more horse racing odds.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing
