Can Treve land incredible Arc de Triomphe treble?

French wonder mare Treve is a red-hot favourite to win a record breaking third Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, but is she the good thing that her odds suggest?

The Criquette Head-Maarek trained five-year-old made it six wins on the bounce when landing the 2013 running in impressive fashion by five length from Orfevre, and after disappointing when failing to win in her first three starts last season bounced back to her brilliant best to land last year’s renewal in terrific style.

Treve goes into this year’s contest unbeaten in three and in the form of her life, having won the Group 2 Prix Corrida, Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and Group 1 Prix Vermeille.

The daughter of Motivator was particular impressive in the latter over course and distance when romping to a facile six length success on testing ground.

After racing very free in the earlier stages, Treve made smooth headway on the bridle two from home before quickening clear to win as she liked despite hanging right.

It was a stunning performance, and one which entitles Treve to be so short in the Arc market.

She is clearly very, very special and the physical problems she had at the beginning of last season are clearly behind her.

However, there are reasons to believe that Treve could prove vulnerable in her Arc hat-trick bid.

As impressive as her win the the Prix Vermeille was, Treve was very lit up in the earlier stages and the sight of her drifting right after hitting the front has to be a concern.

That race was also run on ground officially described as “very soft”, and they are conditions that Treve absolutely relishes.

She is unlikely to be able to get her toe in as the ground continues to dry out in Paris, and the going could be on the fast side of good come race day if the weather forecast is correct.

I also feel that it is a big ask for Treve to turn up in the same form as she was in the Vermeille, despite her trainer’s insistence that she is in flying form and better than ever.

To me, she raced far too keenly in the earlier stages, and despite the apparent ease of the victory the run may well have taken more out of Treve than it appeared.

Treve also has to give weight away to some very talented three-year-olds in the shape Of Golden Horn and New Bay, who both have Derby successes to their name.

That will not be easy, especially as both those rivals have form on quick ground and remain open to further improvement.

So far all that Treve is a true superstar, there are reasons to think that it will not been plain sailing in her bid to create history on Sunday, October 4th.