Yoan Gouffran
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Win big on Newcastle leading at half time but not beating Swansea

| 04.12.2013

Looking solely at recent form, it is easy to assume that the match-betting prices have been accidentally reversed as Newcastle prepare to travel to Swansea.

Newcastle are the 13/5 outsiders to leave Wales with the three points, despite arriving on a four-game winning streak, which includes a victory at Tottenham on their last road trip.

In contrast, Swansea have only won one of their last eight in all competitions and none of their last four at home, yet they are the 11/10 favourites. The draw is available at 12/5.

Meanwhile, the case for a Swans victory is not helped by the fact they will be without their two biggest attacking threats in Michu and Wilfried Bony.

This means that Alvaro Vazquez is expected to lead the line on his own again, despite making 11 appearances in all competitions and still being without his first Swans goal.

Although recent form dictates that Newcastle’s odds may be on the generous side, it is the 8/11 on offer that the clash witnesses over 2.5 goals being scored that has the most appeal.

Five of Swansea’s six Premier League fixtures at the Liberty Stadium have seen at least three goals scored, predominantly because no other side in the top-flight have conceded more on their own patch than Michael Laudrup’s men.

Newcastle’s away games have not been shy of goals either, with five of their last six also going over the 2.5-goal line.

What’s more, the Toon have scored at least once in 11 successive Premier League outings and only league-leaders Arsenal have netted the first goal of a game on more occasions than Newcastle this season.

This leads into another recommended bet, as Swansea have not scored a first-half goal in any of their last eight league fixtures.

Newcastle are 5/4 to be the team to score the first goal here and are 31/10 to open the scoring in the first half.

Furthermore, Loic Remy may be the most fancied player to break the deadlock after netting eight goals in nine Premier League games, but Yoan Gouffran is another in form with three in four outings.

Gouffran is definitely the value pick at 11/1 to score first and holds plenty of appeal at 4/1 to be on target in the 90 minutes.

Swansea may be struggling for first-half goals, but it should be noted that they have registered seven goals across their last three league games at home, putting four past Sunderland and three beyond Stoke.

Therefore, 10/1 does look a tasty price that Newcastle hold the half-time lead, but fail to go on to win the game, as Swansea can be expected to come on strong after the interval.

The total corners market is another that may hold some profit as Swansea have taken 30 corners across their last three Premier League home games, taking at least seven in each fixture.

The return of keen dribbler Pablo Hernandez may only up this count further as he bids to reach the byline, so 11/5 is not the worst price that 13 or more corners are won throughout the clash.