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Lincoln trend watch – three likely four-year-olds for Saturday’s feature

| 28.03.2013

The Lincoln at Doncaster has long been recognised as the clarion call which awakens flat-racing fans from their winter slumbers. The race can be something of head scratcher for punters, with 22 runners going to post – here we turn to the 10 year trends in an effort to isolate some likely scorers and find a trio of trendy types.

All 10 winners in the last decade have been aged between four and six years old.

Horses rated 95 or higher have taken nine of the last 10 renewals.

Eight of the last 10 winners carried between 8st9lbs and 9st2lbs.

Of the last 10 horses to prevail, eight were doing so on their first run of the season.

0 of the last 10 winners had previously scored at Doncaster.

The trendy types – Shamaal Nibras, Hit The Jackpot, Lahaag

NB: Chapter Seven

Unlike nine of the past 10 Lincoln winners Richard Hannon’s Shamaal Nibras has yet to score over 1m, but a short head second over an extra half furlong on his penultimate start vouches for his ability to stay the trip. Given that Class 2 affair was run on soft going and the four-year old has previously scored on heavy ground he should have no trouble dealing with the underfoot conditions. Hannon has yet to gain so much as a place from five previous Lincoln runners, but his First Samurai colt has been the subject of much support, backed in from 20/1 to 10/1 with Coral.

Hit The Jackpot is an intriguing runner, having competed over 1m2f at Group 2 and 3 level in Ireland when under the tutelage of Dermot Weld. He was roundly thrashed by Light Heavy on both occasions, but finished just four lengths in arrears of that rival when the pair met over a mile. With Light Heavy now officially rated 113 it’s quite possible that Hit The Jackpot could improve beyond a mark of 96 when returned to a mile, the only trip at which he has previously won.

Ante-post favourite with Coral, Lahaag’s fits the trends and showed himself unfazed by soft ground when finishing a short head behind Chapter Seven over 1m1f at York last term. He finds himself 1lb better off with that rival on Town Moor and having only raced four times it’s more than feasible that there’s more improvement to come from him.