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Cheltenham Festival Trendwatch – the Wednesday undercard

| 13.03.2013

Away from the championship races there are a whole host of races with winners to be had. Here we take a look at some key trends that should help narrow down the search:

1:30 John Oaksey National Hunt Novice Chase for Amateur Riders

Every one of the last 10 winners had run at least four times that season.

Eight of the last 10 winners had finished in the first two of a race during the 50 days preceding this contest.

Both victors since penalties were scrapped had been sent off favourite for a Grade 1 novice chase that season.

Since penalties for previous chase wins were scrapped in this race two years ago the highest rated runner has justified favouritism to win both runnings.

The Trendy Types – Second top-rated Tofino Bay fits all the other trends

NB: Top-rated Back in Focus will be dangerous if overcoming a 75 day lay off.

4:00 Coral Cup

10 of the last 10 victors racing at least twice in the campaign, while 11 of the last 17 winners had run no more than three times that season.

Nine of the last 10 winners had won over the 2m5f Coral Cup trip or further.

Six of the last 10 Coral Cup winners had won or placed in a graded or listed hurdle.

Irish-trained runners have won four of the last 10 runnings from a mere 18.4 per cent.

The Trendy Types – Abbey Lane

4:40 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

All eight past winners were sired by a horse who had finished in the first 2 in a Group 1 on the flat.

Seven of the eight winners since this race’s introduction in 2005 had last raced 25 days before their Festival engagement.

Six of the eight previous winners were officially rated between 124 and 130.

The two Imperial Cup winners to have competed in this race after their Sandown triumph claimed a win and a second place.

The Trendy Types – Zamdy Man, Three Kingdoms, Knight Pleasure, Ibsen.

17:15 Champion Bumper

18 of the last 20 Champion Bumper victors had won last time out

Eight of the last 10 winners had previously won at a left handed track.

Five of the last 12 winners had been put away for the Festival after winning before the new year.

The Trendy Types – Regal Encore, Union Dues

NB: The Liquidator finished second in the Cheltenham Open Bumper – a race that has produced two of the last 10 Champion Bumper winners – some 13 lengths in front of the third.